Have we reached the bottom yet?

I ran in to a friend of mine yesterday who is an Executive VP in a semiconductor manufacturing equipment company.  He had a smile on his face, even after he was done telling me that their business (along with all other semi manufacturing equipment companies) are 30% down year-to-year.  I asked him what he was smiling for, then.  His response: "We're seeing signs that it's turning around".  They're getting some here-and-there orders and they're seeing the pipeline for Q4 already filling up.

I'm personally not sure if we're at the very trough yet .... I still need more signs to believe it, but my friend was very sure that things are getting better (though mildly).

Is it just wishful thinking, by any chance?